When Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira last shared the octagon, there was little doubt about who walked away the rightful winner. Ankalaev executed a near-flawless game plan, leaving no room for debate. Known for his relentless pressure, Pereira struggled to impose his usual style. Instead, it was Ankalaev who dictated the pace, reading Pereira’s timing perfectly and neutralizing much of his offense.
But the big question heading into their rematch is simple: will history repeat itself?
I don’t think it will be as straightforward this time. Pereira is a fighter who learns quickly from his setbacks, and it’s hard to imagine him coming in with the same vulnerabilities. In their first meeting, he didn’t look like the same Pereira we’re used to—the one who stalks his opponents, cutting off the cage and landing devastating counters. Expect a sharper, more prepared version of him in the rematch, which makes this a true 50/50 matchup on paper.
That said, Ankalaev remains the defending champion for good reason. His composure, shot selection, and ability to control the rhythm of the fight give him a clear edge. If he brings the same formula—measured pressure, calculated striking, and confidence gained from the first victory—he’ll once again have the advantage in timing and execution.
Ultimately, Pereira’s adjustments will determine how close this fight becomes. If he reclaims his aggressive identity, he can turn this into a war. But if Ankalaev imposes his strategy like last time, he may well cement himself as the superior fighter in this rivalry.
My prediction: while it’s bound to be more competitive, Ankalaev’s discipline and confidence tip the scales ever so slightly in his favor.
